Gate Latest Crypto Assets Market Analysis (October 20): ETH volume historically surpasses BTC for the first time, capital rotation shifts towards alts.

Gate's cryptocurrency market analysis on October 20 shows that Bitcoin is consolidating around 110,000 USD, currently priced at 108,000 USD, with a slight fall of 0.57% in the last 24 hours and a trading volume reaching 11 billion USD. The market's biggest highlight is that Ethereum's spot trading volume has historically surpassed Bitcoin for the first time. Institutional investment continues, with publicly listed companies holding over 1 million BTC, indicating solid long-term buying support.

Bitcoin 110,000 US dollars volatility intensifies long and short game

The analysis of the crypto assets market shows that Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around 110,000 USD, with an intensifying battle between bulls and bears. The price is at 108,000 USD, with a slight drop of 0.57% in 24 hours. This mild decline indicates that the market has not experienced panic selling, but rather has entered a consolidation and digestion phase. The trading volume reached 11 billion USD, which is at a healthy level, indicating that the market has ample liquidity and sufficient trading depth.

Institutional investment continues to be the most important support factor for Bitcoin. The amount of BTC held by listed companies has exceeded 1 million coins, marking a historic milestone. According to data from Bitcoin Treasuries, listed companies such as MicroStrategy, Tesla, Coinbase, and Marathon Digital have accumulated over 1 million Bitcoins, worth over $10.8 billion. This institutional-level long-term holding provides strong support for the price, as these companies adopt a buy-and-hold strategy and will not sell off due to short-term fluctuations.

Technically, a clear range of fluctuations has formed around 110,000 USD. The resistance above is between 112,000 and 115,000 USD, which is the area that failed to break through multiple times earlier. The support below is at 107,000 USD, which is a key level that has been tested multiple times recently without breaking. This kind of range fluctuation is usually a consolidation phase before the continuation of a trend, and the direction of the breakout will determine the subsequent movement.

Crypto Assets market analysis recommendations suggest that short-term operating strategy involves accumulating positions in batches within the range of 107,000 to 110,000 USD. If it falls near 107,000, it can be considered a better buying opportunity; if it breaks through 112,000 and stabilizes, then it can be chased for gains. The stop-loss level is set at 105,000 USD to guard against breakout risks. It is recommended to control positions at 10-15% of total assets to avoid excessive leverage. The risk level assessment is moderate, with institutional holdings providing support, but also macro uncertainties exerting pressure.

For mid-term investment layout, it is recommended to adopt a cautiously optimistic attitude. The trend judgment is upward with fluctuations, but key points need to be monitored. Asset allocation ratio: BTC 60%, ETH 30%, others 10%. This allocation enjoys the stability of BTC while capturing the growth potential of the ETH ecosystem. Key observation points include changes in SEC regulatory policies, dynamics of large institutional investments, and the negotiation results of the Xi-Trump meeting on October 31.

Ethereum spot trading volume historically exceeds Bitcoin

The most surprising data in the analysis of Crypto Assets market is that Ethereum's spot trading volume has historically surpassed Bitcoin for the first time. ETH is currently priced at $3,942, with a 24-hour fall of 1.01% and a trading volume of $6.1 billion. Although the absolute figure is still lower than BTC's $11 billion, when calculating the share of spot trading volume, ETH's spot trading activity has already surpassed BTC.

This phenomenon reflects the increased activity level of the Ethereum (/buy-ethereum-eth) ecosystem. With the maturation of Layer 2 solutions, the revival of DeFi protocols, and the warming of the NFT market, the actual use cases for ETH are expanding. The market is paying attention to the capital flow in September, and data shows that Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net inflows in September, while Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows. This divergence suggests that institutional funds are reassessing the allocation value of ETH.

Technically, ETH is oscillating around the $4,300 mark, which is the previous high point area, and there is some profit-taking pressure. The current price of $3,942 is about 9% away from this resistance level, and a breakthrough requires greater Trading Volume. The support below is at $3,900, with further support at $3,800. If it falls below $3,800, it could trigger a technical adjustment to the $3,600 area.

Crypto Assets market analysis shows that Ethereum short-term operation strategy is to build positions in the range of 3,900 to 4,000 USD. The stop-loss is set at 3,800 USD, and the volatility of ETH is higher than that of BTC, so the stop-loss needs to be adjusted appropriately. The target for the first phase is 4,300 USD, and after breaking through, we can look at the historical high area of 4,500 to 4,800 USD. Position recommendation is 8-12% of total assets.

The ETH/BTC exchange rate is currently rebounding from a bottom, at about 0.0365, which is an increase of about 10% from the year's low of 0.033. If this trend continues, it means that Ethereum's performance relative to Bitcoin will continue to strengthen, which is one of the signals indicating the arrival of altcoin season.

The Explosion of Shanzhai Coins and the Rise of the Fear Index

Analysis of Crypto Assets market must pay attention to the fluctuations of altcoins. MAI surged 81.81% in 24 hours, priced at 0.00099 USD, with a significant increase in Trading Volume. The rapid rise of such low-priced coins usually attracts speculative funds, but the risk is extremely high. XPOWER increased by 78.38%, priced at 0.0044 USD, with extremely high volatility. AUCTION increased by 17.12%, priced at 8.452 USD, relatively stable.

The common characteristics of these altcoins are low market capitalization, high volatility, and high speculation. The 80% level rise of MAI and XPOWER was completed within a single day, indicating rapid capital rotation. This phenomenon usually occurs during the transitional period when market sentiment shifts from extreme fear to cautious optimism, and speculative capital begins to test high-risk, high-return targets.

However, the Fear and Greed Index is only 29, still in the “fear” phase, indicating a cautious overall market sentiment. Compared to last week's 22, the reading of 29 has rebounded, showing that the most panicked moment has passed, but there is still distance from the neutral zone of 50. This sentiment forms a subtle contrast with the surge of altcoins, indicating a divergence within the market: conservative funds are still on the sidelines, while aggressive funds have begun to position themselves.

The market liquidity health assessment shows that the 24-hour Trading Volume of BTC is 11 billion USD, and that of ETH is 6.1 billion USD. The market liquidity is good, and the trading depth is sufficient. The arbitrage space for mainstream coins is limited, indicating that the market is in a relatively balanced state. This balance may be disrupted by external catalysts, such as the results of the Xi-Trump meeting negotiations on October 31, the Federal Reserve's policy statements, or major project announcements.

Market Outlook and Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market analysis outlook is as follows: 60% probability of a sideways market, 30% probability of a bull market, and 10% probability of a bear market. This probability distribution indicates a market leaning towards sideways movement, but the likelihood of a bull market is significantly higher than that of a bear market, with an overall cautiously optimistic tone.

In a fluctuating market scenario, Bitcoin is expected to fluctuate between $105,000 and $115,000, potentially lasting until November. Investors should adopt a strategy of buying low and selling high, purchasing at the lower edge of the range and reducing positions at the upper edge. A bullish market scenario requires catalysts to trigger it, such as the US-China meeting reaching a trade agreement, the SEC approving more crypto ETFs, or mainstream institutions announcing large-scale purchases. Although the probability of a bearish market scenario is low, it cannot be ignored. If the US-China meeting negotiations break down or new macro shocks occur, Bitcoin may fall below $105,000 and test the $100,000 integer level.

Core risks include:

Systemic Risk: Global economic uncertainty, especially the progress of the China-U.S. trade war.

Regulatory Risk: Changes in SEC policies may affect ETF fund flows.

Liquidity Risk: Rapid changes in market sentiment may lead to extreme volatility.

Key catalysts include the results of the Xi-Biden meeting, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in November, and significant announcements from major crypto projects (such as Solana's preview on October 20). Investors should closely monitor these events and be prepared to respond to different scenarios.