Analyst Warns of a Big Crash for Solana (SOL): Here’s His Outlook

After riding waves of hype, meme coin trading, and fast transaction speeds, the blockchain became known as one of the “big three” alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum. Yet, despite all that, SOL price has slipped. From its yearly high, Solana is already down more than 23%, now trading near $225.

A crypto analyst from Gerhard – Bitcoin Strategy on YouTube argues that Solana is sitting on shaky ground. He points out that Bitcoin gained 77% over the past year, while Solana token managed only 33%. Ethereum also saw stronger performance. This lag shows how Solana struggles to keep pace, even when broader markets are bullish.

Gerhard notes that Solana’s journey has not been smooth. During the DeFi winter, total value locked on Solana collapsed from $10B to just $200M, a 98% crash. Then came FTX’s downfall, which hurt Solana badly since the exchange was one of its strongest backers.

Even though the chain later benefited from meme coin trading frenzies, the recovery has not been steady. For almost 2 years, SOL price has traded in a wide range. According to Gerhard, the market is now deleveraging again, which could trigger more downside.

Data Suggests Trouble Ahead for the SOL Token

The analyst also mentioned that the on-chain numbers tell a worrying story. Active addresses on Solana have been shrinking since November 2024. Much of the trading volume comes from pump.fun and pump.swap, platforms filled with meme coins. Gerhard doubts this activity is sustainable, pointing to suspicious patterns that look more like wash trading than organic growth.

Even the total value locked in Solana, when measured in SOL tokens, has gone flat since April 2025. That means capital is no longer expanding in the ecosystem. Without fresh growth, SOL price may struggle to hold its ground.

Perhaps the biggest red flag Gerhard sees is leverage. Open interest in Solana perpetual futures exploded from $1.7B to nearly $17B, a 10x jump. This creates a fragile setup. If large leveraged bets unwind, cascading liquidations could hammer SOL price quickly.

Unlike Bitcoin, where leverage has grown more moderately, Solana appears dangerously exposed. As Gerhard explains, arbitrage bots connect futures markets with the spot market, meaning liquidations can spill over and push SOL price lower in both. This is why he warns of the possibility of another steep crash, even one approaching the scale of past declines.

Read Also: XRP Price Outlook: What Traders Should Expect in the Short-Term

SOL token remains a key player in crypto, but Gerhard believes its position is not as strong as many assume. Between declining user activity, questionable trading patterns, and extreme leverage, Solana faces serious risks. Meanwhile, Bitcoin appears to be the safer bet as capital continues to flow back into it.

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