ASTER bubble burst? Futures net outflow exceeds $1.36 billion, whales retreat, and $1.32 becomes the key support!

Since reaching an all-time high of $2.43 on September 24, the price of the emerging project ASTER token has been under significant downward pressure. As of the time of writing, the token is trading at $1.74, with a daily decline of 10.34%, and it has pulled back approximately 27.75% from its historical peak. The core driver of this pullback is the drastic shift in market sentiment in both the futures and spot markets: the net flow in futures recorded a massive negative value of -$139.9 million within 24 hours, while the trading volume of perpetual futures has significantly shrunk, indicating that traders are actively deleveraging and taking profits, leaving ASTER facing a choice between a pullback or a trend reversal.

Market Sentiment Changes Dramatically: The "Trend" in Futures Trading Has Shifted

ASTER previously achieved explosive growth due to huge demand for Futures, but the latest data shows that market sentiment has undergone a significant shift, with a large number of investors actively reducing positions.

· Record net outflow in futures: According to CoinGlass data, Futures outflow surged to 1.36 billion USD, far exceeding the inflow of 1.22 billion USD, resulting in ASTER's Futures Netflows at -139.9 million USD within 24 hours. This change rate of -133% is typically interpreted as a sharp decrease in capital inflow and an increase in market exits, indicating downward pressure on prices.

· The volume of Perpetual Futures trading has significantly shrunk: The Perpetual Volume of ASTER plunged from $46.98 billion to $42.88 billion within 24 hours. More notably, this metric has drastically decreased from $188.3 billion over the course of a week, clearly indicating that traders are actively closing positions and implementing de-risking strategies. This contraction in contract size is a direct signal of declining speculative enthusiasm and weakening bullish expectations in the market.

Spot Market Dominated by Bearish Trends: Selling Pressure Continues to Rise

(Source: Nansen)

The behavior of the Spot market is highly consistent with that of the futures market, validating the prevailing bearish sentiment:

· Continuous Negative Trading Delta: Coinalyze data shows that the spot market for ASTER has experienced negative trading delta (buy-sell volume difference) for two consecutive days. For example, on September 28, the selling volume was 38.8k, while the buying volume was only 32k, resulting in a negative delta of -6k. This imbalance reflects that the selling power has dominated, leading to strong selling pressure in the spot market.

· Whales Exit: The trading activity of whales, a major driving force in the market, has significantly contracted. At the price peak, whales once purchased over 1.6 billion ASTER in a single day, with an average daily inflow exceeding 100 million. However, in the past week, whales only bought 21 million while selling 15 million. The sharp decline in whale demand marks a retreat in market speculative interest.

Key Technical Level Outlook: Critical Points for Pullback or Reversal

In the context of a comprehensive bearish sentiment in the Futures and Spot markets, ASTER is at a critical moment in its technical formation. Investors and traders need to closely monitor the following price levels to determine whether the current situation is a healthy pullback or a reversal of the long-term trend:

· Downward support level: If the current bearish sentiment continues, ASTER may continue to dip towards the core support level of 1.32 USD. This level will be a key line to determine whether the Token can stabilize.

· Upside resistance level: If speculative demand in the market reignites, ASTER may retest the key resistance at 2.1 dollars. After this, the next major challenge will be the resistance area at the historical high of 2.4 dollars.

Strategy Suggestion: Traders should remain cautious until a clear breakout above $2.1 occurs, treating $1.32 as an important benchmark for assessing market risk and potential rebound opportunities. If this support level is broken, the price may face a deeper correction.

Conclusion

The violent rise and fall of ASTER in a short period is a typical reflection of the "new star" effect in the cryptocurrency market and the de-leveraging by institutions. The net flow of futures has turned negative, the significant shrinkage of perpetual futures trading volume, and the exit of whales have collectively created strong selling pressure. The market's focus has shifted from "Will it continue to rise?" to "Can it hold above $1.32?" Before the market sentiment has recovered, it is crucial to remain vigilant and strictly adhere to risk control.

Disclaimer: This article is for news information only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make cautious decisions.