The volatility of Bitcoin falls – But OG whales can turn the tide.

The Bitcoin derivatives market is showing clear signs of maturity. With record options activity on CME alongside new ETFs from Wall Street, the Bitcoin market is becoming increasingly stable and is being strongly led by large institutions. Despite the decrease in volatility, models still suggest the potential for a price explosion after the halving in 2025, similar to previous cycles. The Bitcoin derivatives market (BTC) is heating up like never before: from record activity on CME to new products from Wall Street "giants", the way traders hedge risks and speculate is changing, which may shape the next direction of the market.

The Growing Power of Wall Street over Bitcoin

The open contract (OI) of Bitcoin options on CME has just hit a record level, surpassing 6.2 billion USD — and this growth is not only coming from individual traders.

Source: CMELarge financial institutions are leveraging systematic strategies, such as covered calls, now being "packaged" as new products like BlackRock's Bitcoin covered call ETF.

This reflects a maturing Bitcoin market. As the selling of volatility increases, the sharp fluctuations that have been the "trademark" of Bitcoin may be softened, opening up the possibility of a more stable price, less turbulence, but still full of potential in the future.

This is the model that Bitcoin continuously repeats

Although the Bitcoin derivatives market is gradually maturing, its price cycles still follow familiar patterns.

After each halving, this asset often returns to test the (MA) 21-week moving average around September, before entering the final strong rally. Historical charts have clearly recorded this pattern in the years 2013, 2017, and 2021, each time leading to the peak cycle (cycle blow-off top).

Source: XIn 2025, a similar setup is gradually forming, indicating that the long-term rhythm of the market remains unchanged. This opens up the possibility of much more growth potential ahead.

The "veterans" are still influencing the market

Source: GlassnodeThe volatility of Bitcoin seems to have eased, with the actual volatility over 1 month falling below 30% at the end of September. However, this does not mean that the market is at rest.

Source: CryptoQuantThe Coin Days Destroyed index still records periodic spikes, signaling that "long-term" coins are still being moved. These veteran holders often reappear at critical times, and their presence usually coincides with strong price fluctuations.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading around 109,000 USD, with the lowest volatility in many months. But don't forget, these "old hands" still hold the power to shake the market... just by making a timely decision.

SN_Nour