Moody's: The probability of a recession in the U.S. over the next 12 months is 48%, with the economy at a critical juncture.

2025-09-15 02:45:42

According to Mars Finance, Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi stated that the agency's latest machine learning leading indicator shows that as of August, the probability of a recession in the United States in the coming year is 48%. He noted that although this reading is below the 50% threshold, historically, when the probability approaches or breaks through the 40% range, it often coincides with or follows a recession. Zandi also mentioned that the slowdown in employment and the continuous downward revisions of data put the economy at a critical point.

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