Three major on-chain and market warning signals for XRP may affect the long positions in 2025.

Despite the market's optimistic price prediction for Ripple (XRP) in 2025, the latest on-chain and market data has released three potential warning signals. These signals may not immediately trigger a big dump, but could weaken long positions in the coming months, affecting the height of the next bull run.

Alert 1: Large CEX's XRP reserves reach all-time high

(Source: CryptoQuant)

According to CryptoQuant data, the XRP reserves of large CEXs surged to 3.57 billion coins at the beginning of September, an increase of 670 million coins compared to the end of August, setting a new historical high.

Potential interpretation: A large influx of tokens into exchanges usually indicates that investors may be preparing to sell for profit or to stop losses.

Key support: The 2.7-2.8 dollar range is the technical barrier for September, and a fall below or a breakthrough will affect the trend for the next quarter.

This phenomenon indicates that many coin holders are waiting for a decisive movement at key price levels, which may trigger concentrated selling pressure or profit-taking at any moment.

Warning Two: XRPL Ecosystem TVL and Trading Volume Decline

(Source: DefiLlama)

DeFiLlama data shows that the total locked value (TVL) of XRPL has decreased from 120 million dollars to 98 million dollars in the past two months.

DEX trading volume: In September, it dropped to 2.3 million USD per day, the lowest since April, down 90% from the mid-July peak.

Impact: Capital outflows and weakened trading activity indicate a decline in the attractiveness of XRPL in the DeFi space.

Compared to other public chains with a TVL of tens of billions of dollars, the scale disadvantage of XRPL is more evident in a bear market.

Warning Three: Google Search Interest Big Dump

(Source: Google Trends)

Google Trends data shows that over the past two months, the global search index for "XRP" has dropped from a peak of 100 to 19; the keyword "XRP ETF" has fallen from 100 to 9.

Interpretation: Declining attention from retail investors and the media may lead to a decrease in trading volume.

Historical Reference: Coins like DOGE and SHIB have experienced explosive growth when social and search interest peaked, while the opposite leads to stagnation.

The decline in heat means that XRP is susceptible to price impacts from large holders selling off or macro events.

Technical Perspective: Long Positions Still Have Opportunities

(Source: Trading View)

Despite the on-chain and market sentiment data being bearish, some technical analysts remain optimistic about XRP:

Breakthrough signal: Recently broke through the descending triangle pattern, which may indicate a new round of bullish rise.

Key support: Long-term accumulation in the $2.7-$2.8 range may provide momentum for a breakout by the end of the year.

Optimistic forecast: Analyst Gordon predicts that XRP is expected to reach 6 USD by 2025.

Conclusion

The three major warning signs in September – the reserves of large CEXs hitting a record high, the decline in XRPL ecosystem data, and the big dump in Google search interest – have sounded the alarm for XRP investors. Although there is still room for a rebound from a technical perspective, if these fundamentals and market sentiment indicators continue to deteriorate, the long positions in 2025 may be limited. For investors, the key is to closely monitor the performance of support levels and flexibly adjust their position strategies.