Trump shortens the Russia-Ukraine negotiation period to 10-12 days and threatens Iran, is the rise of Bitcoin facing geopolitical risk tests?

On the 28th, U.S. President Trump announced that he would significantly shorten the previous 50-day deadline for Russia-Ukraine negotiations to only 10-12 days, and threatened to "quickly destroy" Iran if it resumes its nuclear program. The geopolitical tensions have suddenly escalated, raising concerns in the market about the sustainability of the recent rise of Bitcoin (BTC). On the technical front, BTC encountered resistance at the key resistance level of $120,000 today and pulled back.

[Trump applies dual pressure, geopolitical risks surge] On the 28th, U.S. President Trump issued a tough signal regarding two major geopolitical issues. He first expressed disappointment over the lack of progress on the ultimatum set on July 14 that "Russia must reach a peace agreement with Ukraine within 50 days, or face 'severe tariffs.'" He will therefore set a "shorter new deadline"—significantly reduced to just 10-12 days, a decision that will be officially announced tomorrow. This move significantly increases the uncertainty surrounding the prospects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

[Iran Nuclear Issue Threat Escalates "Quick Destruction" Draws Attention] At the same time, Trump has pointed his finger at Iran, stating that the country is "sending dangerous signals." According to a report by Walter Bloomberg, Trump warned that if Iran resumes its nuclear weapons program, the United States will "wipe it out fast." This tough language quickly raised concerns in the international community about a potential deterioration of the situation in the Middle East, and cryptocurrency market investors are also closely monitoring its impact on global risk assets.

【Bitcoin's rise is under pressure, key resistance level encounters obstacles and falls back】 Historical data shows that the price of Bitcoin usually reacts negatively to Trump’s warnings and threats against other countries, especially those involving potential war risks. After the recent end of the Iran-Israel conflict, BTC reached an all-time high (ATH). Although the current price is very close to that high point, the dual escalation of geopolitical tensions may halt or even reverse its rise.

Technical signals are also issuing warnings. Today, the BTC price faced selling pressure and was rejected at the key psychological and technical resistance level of $120,000, causing the price to drop promptly. As of the time of writing, BTC has fallen back to around $118,500, and in the process, it has filled one of the CME gap, indicating that short-term bullish momentum may weaken.

[The safe-haven attribute is once again put to the test, and the market holds its breath.] Bitcoin is often viewed as a potential safe-haven asset or hedge during periods of geopolitical turmoil, but its price volatility also makes it highly susceptible to abrupt changes in risk sentiment. Trump's radical statements on the Russia-Ukraine and Iran issues undoubtedly inject significant uncertainty into the market. If the situation in these two hotspots deteriorates substantially within the new timeframe of 10-12 days or afterward (such as breakdowns in negotiations, escalations in sanctions, or even military actions), it could significantly suppress the risk appetite of the cryptocurrency market and pose a severe challenge to Bitcoin's price trends. Investors need to closely monitor developments and changes in market liquidity, remaining vigilant to the risks of increased volatility in the crypto market.

Conclusion: The Trump administration has simultaneously exerted high pressure on Russia (significantly shortening the negotiation deadline) and Iran (issuing a "rapid destruction" warning), causing the geopolitical "powder keg" risk to escalate sharply. Although Bitcoin has some safe-haven narrative, it recently encountered resistance at the critical resistance level $120,000 and retreated. Coupled with the potential rise in global risk aversion sentiment triggered by geopolitical tensions, BTC faces significant challenges in maintaining its upward trend. Cryptocurrency market participants need to be wary of the potential for increased volatility in the short term and closely monitor the progress of new deadlines in the Russia-Ukraine situation and the subsequent developments regarding the Iranian nuclear issue, as these factors will become key variables influencing the risk appetite for Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market.